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Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

By on August 14, 2003 (8:00:00 AM)

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- by Chris Gulker -
One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large enterprises within 5 years.

Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2 most-installed OS in the world.

Senior program manager Duncan McNutt, who has overseen Siemens's testing of Linux desktops with users and administrators in enterprise settings, believes that Linux will grow quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver equal productivity at significantly lower costs than Windows in very large enterprise environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops.

McNutt says that when Siemens, with 33,000 employees in 44 countries, initially evaluated Linux as a productivity desktop, it saw little utility outside of technical departments. "We didn't see Linux on the desktop as a major market, but we were wrong."

However, McNutt, interviewed by phone from Frankfurt, says Siemens has been prodded to investigate the viability of Linux on the desktop by customers who are both impressed by the success of Linux servers and annoyed by Microsoft's pricing and licensing policies.

The stakes are high, says McNutt: even a single day of productivity lost to technology issues like version upgrades, multiplied by 10,000 or more workers, quickly shows up on enterprise customers' balance sheets, and that's very bad news for the CIO. So, while lower IT costs are "very important" to large customers, maintaining productivity is even more critical.

That's why testing was conducted with "secretaries and managers, not IT people." McNutt believes that the Ximian desktop and application suite, running on either SuSE or Red Hat, requires two days of training, which is the same as what most enterprises budget for a Windows/MS Office version upgrade: one day to acquaint users with the desktop, and one day to introduce the OpenOffice suite.

McNutt went on to say that Ximian's suite -- consisting of a Gnome-based Linux desktop, Evolution mail and calendar app, a tweaked OpenOffice suite, and Red Carpet admin tools -- can be deployed in very large enterprises at lower cost and with no greater disruption than a Windows upgrade, and with significant savings going forward. McNutt says that Linux will save 20% to 30% in administration costs, 50% in hardware costs, and 80% in licensing fees.

Siemens has no "religious" attachment to a particular distro or desktop environment. Before settling on Ximian, Siemens evaluated plain vanilla Gnome and KDE as well. Siemens found KDE to be more "Windows-like" than Gnome, but that led to problems when non-technical users expected a more Windows-like experience. Gnome, particularly Ximian's version, was "different enough" to set user expectations that the experience would be less like Windows, which led to fewer adoption problems.

McNutt also believes that there is kind of virtuous cycle developing, where firms like Siemens and Novell are working with Open Source-oriented companies like Ximian (recently acquired by Novell) to swat bugs and develop features which ultimately go back to the Open Source community. That large group then improves and further debugs the corporate contributions, leading to a code base that rapidly becomes more useful, refined, and stable in corporate environments.

McNutt says that Linux reduces administration costs in large installations of 1,000 desktops and up because it is more scriptable and well-documented than Windows. "With Windows, there's always some feature that you can only get to through the GUI," he says. He also cites the better documentation in Linux that allows administrators to solve oddball problems that can be very time-consuming on Windows, where parts of the proprietary OS are undocumented. McNutt feels that Linux is particularly strong in remote management, which is becoming more important as enterprise workers become more widely dispersed.

Linux saves money on hardware because it typically requires fewer resources to start with, and also because "feature bloat" from application upgrades don't tend to result in machines that run unacceptably slowly after two years service. "If you can keep a machine running at acceptable levels of performance for three years rather than two, you've just saved 50% on hardware costs," McNutt says.

McNutt says that while Linux will save 80% over Microsoft's licensing fees, many large customers, particularly large European government offices, are even more unhappy about being in a position where Microsoft can dictate terms to them. He noted reports that even the U.S. Department of Defense and the State of Washington, Microsoft's home ground, are looking at Linux as an alternative as well.

"These government installations are huge -- often 30,000 or 40,000 desktops" says McNutt. The Europeans are miffed that Microsoft's new licensing leaves them unable to afford both upgrades and support on their current budgets, and, in any case, would much rather use their IT spending to help encourage a local tech industry rather than support a U.S. monopoly.

McNutt noted that some German city governments have already begun to install Linux desktops, and that his firm is about to roll out 7,000 Linux desktops at a "very large financial institution." If that program succeeds, McNutt expects to convert the remaining 27,000 seats to Linux as well.

He also says that large numbers of enterprises that have already delayed or skipped Windows upgrades to save money during difficult economic times are coming to a point that they will have to upgrade to maintain productivity levels. These companies will be looking closely at the experiences of the first large enterprises to embrace Linux on the desktop.

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on Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

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Excellent

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 14, 2003 08:34 PM
Not just good news for Linux, but a good informative article with no accusation of "zealotry" being possible. Siemens are a very pragmatic company and have shown that they only resort to things after a long period of detailed investigation.

I especially liked the bit where they stated that only 2 days training is needed to change from Windows + MS Office to Gnome + OOo, the same as would be required for a Windows upgrade.

The anticipated roll-outs are also interesting. I wonder if there is a central site for keeping track of these enterprise level conversions: that should give some idea as to the usage of Linux in industry. Does anyone have any information?

#

Re:Excellent

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 14, 2003 11:47 PM
I agree -- it gets really tiring to read those "not ready for the desktop" articles over and over again. Even though plenty of people point out that the argument can be reversed ("Is Windows ready?") and that businesses have different requirements from home users, it feels like a constant barrage of paid-expert criticism.

I find the various Linux/Unix desktop offerings to be quite usable and productive in addition to being stable (the only thing to ever bite me in the ass is X, of course). Maybe one of the free desktop sites can keep track of the adoption rate.

#

Re:Excellent

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 20, 2003 01:12 AM
EnterpriseLinux.org (http://www.enterpriselinux.org) could be one source.

#

More Information

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 03:32 AM
In addition to this statement from Siemens, I wonder if there is any company that has ever evaluated the time lost in desktop use using Windows 98/2000 on PCs in an enterprise-wide level compared to Linux, in a typical day's work, and that which is lost with linux. To be fair, this comparison ought to be with controlled environment (well set-up systems, users are only Power Users and therefore unable to install applications themselves, etc..).

This would result in something like:
Setup: Intel 500MHz/1GHz Desktop (or laptop)
Cold Boot Up
Login time
starting Lotus Notes/Outlook (viewing emails/starting new messages in Notes is historically long!)
opening word processor 1st time/next time
opening spreadsheet first time/next time
opening presentation tool first time/next time
opening web browser first time/next time
shutting down
rebooting (yes, even in linux this may happen!)
number of rebooting
etc... (applications in Enterprise environment, not home use, hence no video viewer or filesharing software for example. IM is not yet a universally accepted tool in my experience either)

If workers in a 1000-employee company were asked to monitor all these tasks for a whole week, half of them on linux, half of them on Windows, this should return an average that's actually measurable and would start making sense.

Does this exist anywhere?

#

Re:More Information

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 03:15 AM
Not to be zealotous or anything, but how is office mouse supposed to need to reboot a linux machine? Yes reboot on linux happends, but only when you change some weird configuration on the computer. If there is a mem leak in an app kill the app or restart X in worst case. It is not nescasarery to reboot the whole machine.

<nobr> <wbr></nobr>/Phre4k

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Re:More Information

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 19, 2003 03:47 AM
Agreed - this could be a demonstrating point...

Still, it takes some time to restart X...

#

It's shallow I know, but...

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 11:10 AM
I just don't trust anything said by a person whose name is McNutt. They're telling you something, subtlely.

#

Re:It's shallow I know, but...

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 04:06 PM
Duncan McNutt is the Linux Desktop guy for Siemens and you guys call this a good independant article??? his entire job depends on linux desktop growth, so if he doesn't say it is going to grow then he is out of a job.

geeze guys, every time there is a positive article for linux everyone claims how true and independant and well thought out it is. look at it for what it is, it is no better than the people that say "linux is not ready for the desktop".

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what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 04:18 PM
Duncan McNutt is the Linux Desktop guy for Siemens and you guys call this a good article with no possible way to accuse them of bias, he is a linux zealot. His entire job depends on linux desktop growth, so if he doesn't say it is going to grow then he is out of a job.

geeze guys, every time there is a positive article for linux everyone claims how true and independant and well thought out it is. look at it for what it is, it is no better than the people that say "linux is not ready for the desktop", makes everyone in the linux comunity that use this sort of crap as proof look like idiots.

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 08:56 PM


 
geeze guys, every time there is a positive article for linux everyone claims how true and independant and well thought out it is. look at it for what it is, it is no better than the people that say "linux is not ready for the desktop", makes everyone in the linux comunity that use this sort of crap as proof look like idiots.




  The difference is that there is actually a conducted study and firm nmbers, something most articles dismissing Linux on the desktop fail to provide.



  - Biswa.

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Mandrake Magician on August 16, 2003 03:07 PM
Moreover, if Duncan fudges the numbers, heads will roll<nobr> <wbr></nobr>... starting with his.

I'll take his research over others guesswork.

Current Linux growth has come largely from people deciding that having Linux was sufficiently valuable to justify deleting a pre-installed copy of Windows. That, to a very large degree, is how it came to be installed on hobbyist computers. Future growth is likely to come from original installations of Linux and be proportionately faster.

My guess is that somewhere between the 10% and 20% numbers, office document file formats will stop being proprietary and Linux will have accomplished a major goal. So far as I can tell, we've already gotten to the 10% mark and are gaining speed.

I've used Linux since 1996. The only part about the 20% figure that surprises me is that it would surprise anyone else.

Although Linux has not always been 'desktop ready', there has never been a day when it wasn't headed that way. Does it surprise anyone that, after over ten years of steady coding by thousands of skilled programmers, it has achieved that goal?

After watching me use Linux for about a year, my wife asked me to install it on her machine and rip Windows off her hard drive. I went one better and removed her hard drive altogether and gave her LTSP in its place. She loves it and has loved it since day one.

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Duncan McNutt on August 15, 2003 11:08 PM
Hi,

actually only about 10% of my work has to do with Linux and I am in the process of handing that off to others.

I also use a Microsoft desktop, at work and at home.

Cheers,

    Duncan

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 17, 2003 01:44 AM
So why don't you use Linux on all the desktops at Siemens ?
This would save you allot of money, and than you did'nt have to fire so much people like you did in the past months.

A friend of mine works at Siemens here in Belgium, to be more precise in Herentals.
And for that reason I bought a C45 in March last year.

I started using Linux a year ago with SuSE Linux 8.0 Pro, and now I use SuSE Linux 8.2 Pro.

But what surprised me is the fact that Siemens and Motorola are going to use Windows software in there mobile phones.

And this just after the other players in this area have teamed up to use Linux.

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 01:01 AM
err motorola are using linux in their new mobiles
http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS4504156025.htm<nobr>l<wbr></nobr>

#

US guy?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 12:46 AM
As Siemen's is centered in Germany I wonder what impact the opinion of an US-American business/research entity may have. I look at Siemen's as a large worldwide cluster of different businesses.

Where is Siemen's Linux strategy?

Every large scale IT company has a Linux strategy or business units. Siemen's continues to be very silent while employees adopt Linux through the backdoor.

#

Re:what utter utter garbage

Posted by: fmouse on August 28, 2003 10:49 AM
Why should anyone who appreciates the advantages of Linux be afraid to be a "Linux zealot". It's like we have mottled green skins and pointy ears to some people. Get over it! The American Revolution, the Texas Revolution, the French Revolution, and all social movements that have accomplished anything at all for the common good were moved forward by people with zeal - i.e. "zealots".

I'm a "Linux Zealot", and proud to be one! Someone send me that on a bumper sticker and it'll go right on the back of my pick-m-up truck<nobr> <wbr></nobr>:-)

#

Some readers will say you're the zealot

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on September 18, 2003 12:21 AM
and maybe that he hate's anything that isnt his chosen OS, regardless of its technical/financial merits.

Simple minds will always will claim to HATE something that they have little to no ACTUAL experience of knowledge of, especially while it compete with their idealisms....

What a big gamble to take with your personal credibility in front of so many peers.

#

Reversed logic?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 15, 2003 10:50 PM
From the article

"Siemens has no "religious" attachment to a particular distro or desktop environment. Before settling on Ximian, Siemens evaluated plain vanilla Gnome and KDE as well. Siemens found KDE to be more "Windows-like" than Gnome, but that lead to problems when non-technical users expected a more Windows-like experience. Gnome, particularly Ximian's version, was "different enough" to set user expectations that the experience would be less like Windows, which led to fewer adoption problems."

So how can KDE lead to "adoption" problems if it is more "windows-like" for those who EXPECTED a more Windows-like experince?!!

Common FUD and anti-KDE sentiments are not _so_ rare in newsforge after all

*sigh*

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Trevor Q Leaman on August 15, 2003 11:42 PM
Oh no someone prefered Gnome to KDE..... Quick let's all kick em.....

If you had managed to plug your brain in beforehand you might have realised that the author was suggesting that an end user who is used to doing things the "windows way" would tend to expect another environment that is "similar looking" to operate in the same way.

He was not saying "oh KDE ain't any good", he wasn't saying "Oh Gnome's so much better". He was actually making a very valid point.

A Linux desktop should not try to just look and feel like Windows. It should have it's own identity and both the KDE and Gnome projects are forging ahead in this area.

Just because in their opinion, Gnome has progressed further, it does not mean that we all have to jump on them if we happen to prefer KDE.

I'm also in the process of evaluating Ximian Desktop Pro (XD2) and I must say that I am very impressed. I use KDE lots but I am also prepared to look at alternatives with an open mind and am also prepared to change my opinion according to what I find.

Currently, what I'm finding, is that XD2 does a lot more for my work computer sat amongst a load of XP boxes than any other environment has done before.

#

Take that back!

Posted by: EAZen on August 18, 2003 05:02 AM

"Just because in their opinion, Gnome has progressed further, it does not mean that we all have to jump on them if we happen to prefer KDE."


I'm almost certain that that's not what you meant to say...it just came out wrong, right?

I honestly feel that they're both equally progessed, just in different ways.   In fact, I would even say, under certain things (inter-app integration, for example) KDE is further along (while we're still getting a bonobos, widgets and views together two-three years later.

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 16, 2003 02:23 PM
Actually, anonymous, I found this one of the more provocative observations in this article.

What he was saying is that when there was an expectation of "Windows-like" behavior, in this case fostered by the appearance and features of the desktop, the users were more jarred by deviations from the "Windows Experience," whatever that might be, than were users of a desktop that was obviously a more distinct departure from Windows.

I have always questioned the objective of closely duplicating Windows functionality, behavior, and appearance. Same goes for the Mac OS interfaces. The learning curve would be steeper for a desktop and for applications that broke new ground and did things their own way, but many users might be surprised to discover they prefer the changes.

Personally, there is not much I like about Windows, and this goes double for XP. The same is true about many Windows programs I have used. One example is the Gimp. I've spent enough time in Photoshop and in recent years, the Gimp to clearly prefer the latter. I understand that experienced PS users claim its interface is more intuitive, but it's hard to factor out their experience in that observation. My experience is pretty equal with each, and I prefer the Gimp.

What I am saying, is that the goal of producing a Free software application that most closely approximates a Windows equivalent, or reproduces the "Windows Experience" may be misplaced. I truly prefer much about these Gnu/Linux applications, the Gnu/Linux OS, and the operating environment.

I have spent considerable time in both Gnome and Kde and feel comfortable and productive in each, but have developed a strong preference for Fluxbox which simply suits my way of working and supports the Gnu/Linux applications and a way of doing things that represent a clear departure from Windows.

Frank
fpirrone@localnet.com

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Mandrake Magician on August 16, 2003 03:16 PM
I am in agreement that Linux is Linux and should work to maintain its separate identity. I normally use KDE but every once in a while will fire up Gnome (or some other GUI) just for kicks.

Why?

Because this is a departure from Microsoft and its "one desktop fits all" approach. KDE is fine<nobr> <wbr></nobr>... it's where I live<nobr> <wbr></nobr>... but I relish the freedom to load up another GUI if the mood strikes.

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 19, 2003 05:18 AM
As a recent Linux convert with little technical background, I find the Gnome vs KDE religious wars amusing. I enjoy playing with Enlightenment, IceWM and Blackbox - and I also have found Fluxbox, with its tabbed system, both efficient and aesthetically satisfying. I mean that the efficiency and minimalism is impressive, and that I don't have to click and alt-tab through everything....to each their own...

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 16, 2003 04:37 PM
OK folks. How about a specific anecdote on the subject?
One of my (non-linux-savvy) friends used my PC to do some word processing. I logged them into KDE (as I thought that's it's windows-like nature would make them feel more comfortable) and showed them where KWord was. All was fine until they tried to save to the floppy drive - they used the 'floppy' button in KWord's save dialog (brings up the url 'floppy:/a/'). It didn't work. It didn't work for two reasons: 1,<nobr> <wbr></nobr>/dev/fd0 doesn't exist on my system (I use devfs) and 2, ordinary users don't have raw access to the floppy drive anyway (again, on *my* system). So then I showed them how to use kwikdisk to mount the disk properly. And it was all good.
In GNU/linux, you mount a disk to use it, it's not like windows. OK, there are systems to get round this, like KDE's floppy:/ urls and the linux automounter. Mandrake also has a 'supermount' kernel module (didn't work for me though...) But if I want to use a disk, I mount it first, just one click on GNOME's drivemount-applet does it. Harder than windows? Hardly. Different? Certainly.

#

Re:Reversed logic?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 16, 2003 07:25 PM
If you were working in Technical Support role, you'd know, that the most important part of the job is managing user's expectations... When you see something which looks like a toaster, you expect it to behave in toaster's way, not crumbling bread and giving you a pile of sh**. When user tries familiar Windows procedures and some of them aren't working, it leads to deeper frustration with no motivation to learn the difference, but blaming developers, support and so on...

#

dude, chill.

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 02:47 AM
Hey, its not fud bro. There is a point there (and one that can be subverted<nobr> <wbr></nobr>;)

I've introduced heaps of people in the workplace to linux, and being 'windows' like does offer a disadvantage, in that when people EXPECT windows behaviour , they do it automatically instead of thinking and having a propper menu explore.

The trick with KDE can be as simple as skinning it it a bit wierd (hint aqua skins never fail to impress) and throwing it around abit (but sanely).

That said, gnome 2 seems to be verry mac like , so migrating mac heads might even be better to move em to KDE.

Either way, its not fud. *ITS A LEGITIMATE POINT!*

#

Well said ... but why move from a Mac to Linux?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 01:21 PM
Isn't Mac BSD based?

Doesn't MacOSX have X windows and virutally 100% GNU support?

So why go from "SUPPORTED" hardware and software to<nobr> <wbr></nobr>... well the processor is from here and the mainboard is from here and the OS is from here and<nobr> <wbr></nobr>...

#

Siemens and Software Patent

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 12:39 AM

Siemens Germany

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 12:51 AM
In Munich they adopted Linux because of KDE. In Europe Siemens will never adopt Ximian/Linux as in Europe Linux means Linux+KDE.

Linux and Gnome or Linux and Ximian, that is a desktop solution for hardcore desktop users in Europe. Due to RedHat Gnome is more common in the US but in Europe RedHat is not important at all.
Mandrake, SuSe, Knoppix ecc. prefer KDE.

Consider it as a fact: Ximian desktop will not be accepted in Europe by Siemens employees.

#

Re:Siemens Germany

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 01:24 AM
>Europe Linux means Linux+KDE
Bullshit!

rgrds,

          Somebody from Europe without KDE!

#

Re:Siemens Germany

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 02:23 AM
I'm pretty sure people use Gnome in Europe to. At least according to http://www.gnome.org/press/releases/extremadura.h<nobr>t<wbr></nobr> ml

#

Re:Siemens Germany

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 03:22 AM
Sorry, but this is just nonsense. The company I work for (in the Netherlands) specifically supports RedHat under Linux in order to capture the majority of Linux using customers. Which distribution to use and which desktop to use is, as it should be, dictated by a rather complex grid of requirements set by the "outer world" and the in house users needs. Not some kind of European hype wave in favour of one or the other distro/desktop.

The trend to prefer KDE over GNOME only exists with the European distribution makers. *They* prefer to offer KDE over GNOME. What actually gets installed is a completely different matter and I certainly don't see any trend in one or the other direction in that department.

#

Re:Siemens Germany

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 25, 2003 11:31 PM
In Europe Linux and Gnome are very well asociated
in GERMANY its mostly Linux/KDE
There are lots of distibutions in Europe that have Gnome as default (KDE as option)

#

Deutsh Ximian?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 18, 2003 01:03 AM
Ximian/Novell Desktop? Is a German version available?

#

Take Note Developers

Posted by: EAZen on August 18, 2003 04:53 AM

Siemens has no "religious" attachment to a particular distro or desktop environment. Before settling on Ximian, Siemens evaluated plain vanilla Gnome and KDE as well. Siemens found KDE to be more "Windows-like" than Gnome, but that lead to problems when non-technical users expected a more Windows-like experience. Gnome, particularly Ximian's version, was "different enough" to set user expectations that the experience would be less like Windows, which led to fewer adoption problems.


Mocking Windows is proving to be A Bad Thing™.   It's time we focus more on creating our own easy-to-use look & feel!

#

which Linux?

Posted by: axxackall on August 18, 2003 09:19 AM
20 % on what platform?


Linux can work on more than 10 platforms that are not x86: PPC, Sparc, many others. Of course only few of them are viable for the market of desktops due to the fact that most of others are too expansive. However, PPC is still viable.


Windows is just a part of wintel monopoly, when Intel-copatible PCs are another part of it. Switching from Windows to Linux/x86 is a good trend, but will the switching from Linux/86 to Linux/PPC (or to Linux/others) follow up?

#

Too Bad Novell is Involved!!!

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 19, 2003 05:32 AM
Unfortunately, Siemens Business Systems’ research was most assuredly done without taking into consideration that Novell is buying Ximian. Having worked for Novell I’ve always been one holding out and “rooting for the home team?. After their dismal buggy software releases; software that requires support technicians to connect to our corporate network to implement fixes/hacks (NDS) and continually having their support department hold patches hostage as a means to coerce us into upgrading to a higher more costly PREMIUM SUPPORT CONTRACT. You can count this patsy out of number of folks jumping on the Ximian bandwagon.

I’ve waited well over a year waiting for yet another management team to turn things around. I’m tired of the empty promises that Jack Messman and Chris Stone will clean things up. They’ve not made a difference except to continue Novell’s old ways of trying to purchase their way out of trouble and sending us new faces in place of the old. They’ve not addressed the cancers within that keep eating up good technologies and potentially great “solutions?.

Have you ever seen another company waste away so much good technology and capital through acquisition? If there is any way for Ximian to back out, they should do so immediately. S. B. S. needs to start back at square one with their research or drop to the second place finisher if they expect to make good on their findings.

#

Services not Systems

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 19, 2003 01:30 PM
The name is Siemens Business Services (SBS) not Siemens Business Systems. Geez! Regardless...linux on the desktop is here and is improving/growing. Amen!

http://www.sbs.siemens.com
http://www.sbs.siemens.de

#

Hardware savings exagerated.

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 19, 2003 11:59 PM
"If you can keep a machine running at acceptable levels of performance for three years rather than two, you've just saved 50% on hardware costs," McNutt says.


Actually the saving is only 33%. Over a 6 year period you would need to buy:
  • Windows, one computer every two years = 3 computers
  • Linux, one computer every three years = 2 computers.


By McNutt's logic, if you go a linux computer to last for 4 years you would be saving 100% and getting free hardware. And longer than that and computer companies would be paying you to take it off their hands.

I think it is a bit early to be predicting 20% desktop market share yet. Hopefully, but we will have to wait and see.

#

Bad math

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 21, 2003 10:42 PM
"If you can keep a machine running at acceptable levels of performance for three years rather than two, you've just saved 50% on hardware costs," McNutt says.

This is incorrect. If you can keep a machine running for 3 years rather than 2, then in 6 years you will have to replace hardware 2 times, instead of 3 times. This represents a 33% savings in hardware costs over time, not 50% as claimed.

I do think that Linux is going to save lots and lots of money, but get the numbers right, McNutt!!!

#

Re:Bad math

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 29, 2003 04:21 PM
Ok,
LOGIC:

MODEL ONE:
This assumes that we use incremental time frames based PURELY on hardware:

6 year period, taken as minimum time for fair eval;

Saving = 33%;

Consider 7 years:

You begin, by buying machines,
thus,

        inception = $WIN && $LIN;

Year 3 = $WIN++;<nobr> <wbr></nobr>/* THIS MEANS THAT EXPENSE = 2*$ */
Year 4 = $LIN++;

Year 5 = $WIN ++;
year 7 = $WIN++;
year 7 = $LIN++;

THUS:
$WIN = ????

          = 4;
$LIN = ????

          = 3;

THUS

        Savings = 25%;

---> This seems like an obvious route, savings in Hardware is real, but will eventually become insignificant.

BUT: Savings in the next 1o years will be significant.

MODEL 2:

The McNutt Logic:

2year period:

$WIN = 2;
$LIN = 1;

THUS

        Savings = 50%;
Therefore CORRECT.

End Note:
PLEASE DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME.
GET AN ADULT TO SUPERVISE UNDISCIPLINED THINKING!

Honesty and Logical Consistancy,
These are the Powers we wield,
if you corrupt them, all will be lost.
No Law. No Future.

Up the Penguin!

#

Re:Bad math

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on September 06, 2003 05:10 AM
50% of what.

Win costs are 150% over Linux costs so 150 - 100 = 50%

you cannot just quote a percentage, you have to provide the reference.

#

Re:Bad math

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on September 08, 2003 08:42 AM
Logic error: Linux = $0 Windows = $100+

#

FootNotes

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 22, 2003 04:44 PM
<A HREF="http://www.gnomedesktop.org/article.php?sid=1276&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0" TITLE="gnomedesktop.org">FootNotes has an article here</a gnomedesktop.org> that has a reciprocal link to this story.

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Ximian XD2 should be reviewed

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 26, 2003 08:48 AM
I use the XD2/RH9 and have enjoyed it. It is especially good for a corporate environment since the desktop is "locked down" with fewer options for configuring. Also, the KDE desktop is virtually gutted when loading the XD2 (unless I did it wrong) and is virtually useless. That's ok since I prefer the gnome on RH9. I have tried SuSE 8.2 Pro and liked it with KDE, but still prefer RH9.

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Is McNutt a Linux fan?

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on August 27, 2003 11:10 AM
I really dont know if McNutt is a Linux fan or not.

I'm sure * I am * a Linux fan, probably because I'm a computer expert. But<nobr> <wbr></nobr>... I confess I've tried to use Linux in my home office before with no success. I confess Linux wasn't mature enough for non-technical users. I simply couldn't prepare proposals, spreadsheets and presentations as I would like to. I tried to use Netscape mail reader to manage my contacts and I got a mess! I didn't have a decent schedule/calendar application to help me with my daily tasks.


Recently I tryed again. Now using Ximian Desktop 2 I have almost everything I need for my daily tasks. There are still some lacks: (1) my home banking doesn't work well inside Mozilla; (2) some websites uses non-standard, IE-dependent instructions, so it's difficult to surf sometimes and (3) there's still a serious gap related M$ Project file format.

In spite of these problems, I'm able to work as productive as I was working one week ago.
That's why I dont believe McNutt have hidden interests on Linux. Simply because now it works well enough and have mature enough office productivity tools.

Fernando Gomes mailto:fgomes@hotpop.com

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Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

Posted by: Anonymous [ip: 97.99.123.139] on September 05, 2007 04:29 AM
still waiting

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Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

Posted by: Anonymous [ip: 127.0.0.1] on October 19, 2007 12:49 AM
Anyone trying to predict technological change years in advance is taking a risk.

The number in 2007 is about 6% but should get a big pop from the flop of Vista. Growth rate is large here. Where else are XP people to go after M$ kills their OS? Vista will not run on 80% of existing PCs and running XP unsupported is insane.

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Re: Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

Posted by: Anonymous [ip: 82.182.49.64] on November 27, 2007 05:59 PM
Is it really around 6%. According to this site it's below 1% (http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2). As can be seen on this page, Windows and Mac are increasing their market shares slightly: http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5. Souldn't that mean that Linux has a falling market share trend?

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Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008

Posted by: Anonymous [ip: 99.245.226.111] on November 27, 2007 06:43 PM
According to the marketshare link above, Linux overtook WinNT and WinME in April 2007 and achieved parity with Win98 last month (Oct 2007).

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